Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 9.140098 10.761956 12.547251 14.652700 17.061962 19.726765 22.891114
2024-12-29 6.662359 8.750600 11.268967 14.506777 18.533696 23.349890 29.515740
2025-01-05 4.936522 7.126892 9.982406 13.928079 19.180909 25.868741 34.951810
2025-01-12 3.955678 6.198075 9.322811 13.909860 20.368931 29.020297 41.338066
2025-01-19 3.242713 5.472354 8.770549 13.877789 21.428544 31.991168 47.643168
2025-01-26 2.897536 5.212740 8.816567 14.653531 23.639578 36.666241 56.606309
2025-02-02 2.583493 4.935815 8.775519 15.257149 25.610058 41.108029 65.528674
2025-02-09 2.341215 4.730094 8.803975 15.945121 27.736769 45.902506 75.272266
2025-02-16 2.020084 4.324566 8.435261 15.922285 28.705172 48.969803 82.577584
2025-02-23 1.684222 3.828238 7.833264 15.416924 28.806831 50.647584 87.792442
2025-03-02 1.391658 3.360151 7.210656 14.787013 28.610357 51.789893 92.178373
2025-03-09 1.224842 3.119605 6.978639 14.828924 29.561974 54.856257 99.843969
2025-03-16 1.064516 2.868109 6.699692 14.767244 30.352412 57.759372 107.528050
2025-03-23 0.931730 2.653567 6.465506 14.763933 31.246632 60.902564 115.826334
2025-03-30 0.775284 2.348458 5.993141 14.221308 31.062452 62.116097 120.849467
2025-04-06 0.681423 2.180372 5.794771 14.217347 31.909419 65.226398 129.380429
2025-04-13 0.598840 2.023684 5.597883 14.189369 32.696880 68.265366 137.944603
2025-04-20 0.573643 2.021919 5.766430 14.981918 35.214506 74.695748 153.041178
2025-04-27 0.540145 1.989020 5.853832 15.597894 37.409237 80.634434 167.530958
2025-05-04 0.513185 1.970315 5.973790 16.299472 39.835258 87.154437 183.435018
2025-05-11 0.455939 1.843269 5.795804 16.276250 40.694485 90.646935 193.766747
2025-05-18 0.386444 1.657851 5.432996 15.761044 40.423411 91.860826 199.765783
2025-05-25 0.322534 1.473046 5.039877 15.118788 39.801552 92.307647 204.266053